CLEVELAND — With five weeks left in the 2019 NFL season, the Cleveland Browns find themselves in the thick of the AFC Wilf Card race.
The only problem for them is, they aren’t alone.
With the Buffalo Bills (8-3) currently in pole position for the top Wild Card spot, only two games separate eight teams for the second spot, which currently belongs to the 6-5 Pittsburgh Steelers.
At 5-6, the Browns are just one game back of the Steelers, who they just so happen to face on Sunday. But even if it can beat its division rival for the second time in three weeks, Cleveland will remain in the middle of what currently looks like (at least) a six-team race for two Wild Card spots.
Plenty, of course, will change between now and the end of the season, but at this point, it’s hardly a stretch to say some tiebreaker scenarios will likely come into play. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the AFC Wild Card standings and tiebreaker procedures, as well as where the Browns stack up with each.
Current AFC Wild Card standings
- Buffalo Bills 8-3
- Pittsburgh Steelers 6-5
- Oakland Raiders 6-5
- Indianapolis Colts 6-5
- Tennessee Titans 6-5
- Cleveland Browns 5-6
- Jacksonville Jaguars 4-7
- Los Angeles Chargers 4-7
- New York Jets 4-7
Wild Card Tiebreaker Procedures
According to the NFL’s website, should two teams finish tied with the same record for a Wild Card spot, the following criteria — in order — will be used to determine a tiebreaker:
- Head-to-head (if applicable)
- Best win-loss-tie percentage within conference games
- Best win-loss-tie percentage in common games (minimum of four)
- Strength of victory (combined winning percentages of the opponents that a particular team has beaten)
- Strength of schedule (combined record of all teams in a schedule)
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
- Best combined ranking among all NFL teams in points scored and points allowed.
- Best net points (the difference between points scored and points allowed) in conference games.
- Best net points in all games.
- Best net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss.
Cleveland Browns middle linebacker Joe Schobert (53) returns an interception during the second half of an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins, Sunday, Nov. 24, 2019, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)
AP
Where the Browns stand
Head-to-head
Already laying claim to a Week 11 win over Pittsburgh, the Browns can secure their head-to-head tiebreaker vs. the Steelers with another win against them on Sunday.
In addition to the Steelers, Cleveland currently owns head-to-head tiebreakers over the Bills and Jets. Meanwhile, the Titans hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Browns. Cleveland won’t play any other team currently in the Wild Card hunt this season.
It’s worth noting that head-to-head is eliminated in the case of a three-way tie.
Conference winning percentage
Of the teams currently in the AFC Wild Card race, here are their current records within the conference, with their games remaining against the conference in parenthesis:
- Bills 6-2 (4)
- Steelers 5-3 (4)
- Browns 5-3 (4)
- Colts 5-5 (2)
- Raiders 4-3 (5)
- Titans 4-4 (4)
- Jaguars 4-5 (3)
- Chargers 2-6 (4)
- Jets 1-6 (5)
Currently sitting at 5-6, the Browns could likely only afford one more loss and still remain in Wild Card contention. Should the Browns lose — or only suffer their one loss to the only NFC team remaining on their schedule, the Arizona Cardinals — their AFC record would be 9-3, which would likely be enough to give them enough of a tiebreaker advantage to qualify for a Wild Card spot.
But if Cleveland suffers another loss to an AFC team, the best conference record it could compile (while still remaining in Wild Card contention) would be 8-4, which could bring additional tiebreakers into play.
Common opponents
Of the current contending teams, the Browns will have at least four common opponents with the following (with their number of remaining common opponents in parenthesis):
- Bills 5-1, Browns 3-3 (6)
- Steelers 2-4, Browns 2-4 (6)
- Colts 2-2, Browns 2-2 (1)
- Raiders 1-1, Browns 1-1 (4)
- Jaguars 3-1, Browns 1-3 (2)
- Chargers 1-3, Browns 2-2 (1)
- Jets 0-4, Browns 2-2 (5)
At this point, there are simply too many games remaining to tell which common opponent tiebreakers the Browns should be concerned about.
Strength of victory
Of the teams in the AFC Wild Card race, here’s where their strength of victories currently stand:
- Bills .265
- Steelers .279
- Browns .522
- Colts .461
- Raiders .340
- Titans .421
- Jaguars .304
- Chargers .478
- Jets .375
It’s worth noting that while the Browns’ strength of victory is currently one of the highest in the AFC, the top mark they can finish with is .509 (thanks largely to two games remaining against the 0-11 Bengals). All things considered, this will likely not be a strong tiebreaker for Cleveland. And while tiebreaker procedures rarely playout this far (which is why we’ll stop here for now), it’s worth noting that the Bills advanced to a Wild Card spot over the Ravens based on Strength of Victory in 2017, which marked the first time since 2010 such formula needed to be used.
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