A lot has to happen, but the Browns could potentially earn a postseason berth in Week 16. However, they must beat the Houston Texans first.
CLEVELAND — We’ve known for a while now that the Browns are right in the middle of a playoff race, currently owning the best record among AFC wild-card contenders at 9-5.
At the moment, ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Cleveland an 88.9% chance of getting a postseason berth, the fourth-best odds of all NFL teams who have yet to clinch a spot. However, things will get a lot more interesting, as the league has confirmed the Browns have a shot to earn a bid as early as this weekend.
Let’s run through all the scenarios: For starters, the Browns must beat Houston on Christmas Eve for any of these paths to open up, no ifs, ands, or buts about it. Cleveland is currently listed as a 2 1/2-point road underdog against an 8-6 Texans team also fighting for an AFC playoff spot, although that could change if Houston’s starting quarterback C.J. Stroud remains out with a concussion.
So let’s say the Browns do win — what has to happen then? Well, we’ll actually have a better idea on Saturday, as the NFL will be featuring two Week 16 games with major postseason implications. AFC North rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh will kick off at 4:30 p.m., followed by Buffalo and the Los Angeles Chargers at 8 o’clock.
Cleveland can clinch regardless of the results of either of these matchups, although there are very different outlines involved. For instance, if the Steelers beat the Bengals Saturday at Acrisure Stadium, the following results must take place:
- A Chargers win over the Bills Saturday night
- An Atlanta Falcons win or tie against the Indianapolis Colts Sunday afternoon
- A Miami Dolphins win or tie against the Dallas Cowboys later Sunday
- A New England Patriots win or tie vs. the Denver Broncos Sunday night
But if Cincy prevails over Pittsburgh or the game ends in a tie, the framework gets a lot more complicated, with six separate scenarios now coming into play. Three would be contingent on Buffalo losing to LA, in which case either one of the following three chains of events must occur:
- A Miami win or tie against Dallas and a New England win or tie vs. Denver
- An Indianapolis win against Atlanta, a Tampa Bay Buccaneers win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, and a Miami win or tie vs. Dallas
- An Indianapolis win against Atlanta, a Tampa Bay win over Jacksonville, and a Kansas City Chiefs win vs. the Oakland Raiders on Monday afternoon
Should the Bills beat the Chargers or that game end in a tie, then the Browns could still clinch under any one of these timelines:
- An Indianapolis win against Atlanta, a Tampa Bay win over Jacksonville, and a New England win or tie vs. Denver
- An Atlanta win against Indianapolis, a Miami win or tie vs. Dallas, and a New England win or tie vs. Denver
- A Tampa Bay win over Jacksonville, a Miami win or tie against Dallas, and a New England win or tie vs. Denver
Yet what if the Bengals-Steelers game actually does end in a tie? If (and only if) that takes place, then there is one more scenario that could punch Cleveland’s playoff ticket:
- An LA Chargers win against Buffalo
- An Indianapolis win over Atlanta
- A Tampa Bay win vs. Jacksonville
Did you get all that? Good, because there is one more thing we need to discuss.
You see, while everyone’s attention is on the wild-card race, the Browns still technically have a shot to claim their first divisional title in 34 years. However, they currently trail Baltimore by two games in the AFC North, and the already postseason-bound Ravens can also wrap up first place this weekend if either one of these two storylines come to fruition:
- Cleveland loses or ties vs. Houston and Baltimore beats the San Francisco 49ers Monday night
- Cleveland loses to Houston and Baltimore ties San Francisco
OK, now that we (think?) we know the litany of things that need to happen, we can all turn our attention to what will surely be an entertaining Christmas weekend. Remember: For any of these Rube Goldberg experiments to even have a chance of working, the Browns have to beat the Texans on Sunday.
Merry Christmas, everyone. Try to relax as much as you can while watching the game, as hard as it may be.